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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."